An Economist spoke with my group combined with other Austin groups --
PROJECTING WHEN ECONOMIC CYCLES WILL CHANGE
The US has been a major force in the global business cycle rising trend that we have been enjoying in recent years. This rise is not going to last forever. There are very real threats to the rising trend, made all the more real by the reality of two of our leading indicators having already peaked and in negative trends. These leading indicators are empirical input to the probability of recessionary forces building within the US economy, and by extension the global economy.
The shift in the business cycle trend that lays ahead demands that we prepare our businesses for a changed set of circumstances. Maximizing profits during the 2008-2010 period is going to be very much a function of facing the realities of changing Phase Management Objectives™. It is possible to prosper through the forthcoming malaise, but it requires knowing what the salient indicators are that we should follow, what are some of the potentially countercyclical markets (both within the US and outside of our economy), and what are the major pitfalls to avoid.
The above must be considered in the context of the US' ongoing dominant position in the global economic community, higher energy prices, and dramatically different demographic trends around the globe.
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Biography: Alan Beaulieu has been an economist with the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) since 1989. At the institute, he has been engaged in applied research regarding business cycle trend analysis, growth cycle trend analysis, and the utilization of cyclical analysis at a practical business level. The applied research conducted by the institute includes domestic and international economic issues. Beaulieu is a featured speaker at corporate and trade association meetings both in the U.S. and overseas.
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